• EXPO REAL trend index finds 40% of respondents cautious about the market, up from 22% last year, despite a rebound in German investment volumes.

Caution among European real estate professionals has risen sharply over the past year, according to the 2026 EXPO REAL trend index, published on 24 September ahead of the Munich trade fair. 

The survey of 430 exhibitors and visitors was conducted in August by IfaD on behalf of Messe München. It found 40% were "cautious" or "very cautious" about the current market, up from 22% in 2025. The share describing themselves as optimistic fell from 44% to 25%.

The cooler mood contrasts with a pick-up in German investment activity. CBRE reports that transaction volumes rose 13% year on year in the first half of 2026. JLL puts the increase at 15%, to around €17.6bn. Residential accounted for about a third of volume, and logistics volumes rose by around 22% to €2.9bn.

Data centres have climbed to second place among asset classes expected to gain importance, cited by 69% of respondents (2025: 63%). Housing remains first on 74%, with care properties third on 64%. Offices (9%), parking garages (9%) and retail (8%) remain at the bottom.

Respondents named less bureaucracy (73%) and better capital availability (69%) as the main requirements for the industry's future. Around 97% said reducing construction costs was important or very important in tackling housing affordability.

Infrastructure is also moving closer to the property mainstream. Some 71% of respondents said it is given greater consideration in real estate projects than five years ago, and 70% said growing investment needs must increasingly be met by private and institutional investors.

Stefan Rummel, CEO of Messe München, said: "The trend index shows an industry caught between caution and signs of recovery. The transaction markets are picking up again, but at the same time, major challenges remain. Stakeholders are investing again, but need better framework conditions and, above all, faster progress in reducing red tape. It is striking that investable infrastructure is increasingly becoming an integral part of the real estate market. EXPO REAL is responding to that and expanding its scope."

EXPO REAL takes place in Munich from 5 to 7 October 2026.